Beyond Meltdown

Peter Brain

‘I have written this book in the hope that I can help people understand why economies fail, what has to be done to get them to perform successfully, and how these issues relate to what I regard as an underlying global economic crisis.’

With these modest words, Dr Peter Brain introduces an eye-opening, masterful analysis that will change the way most people think about economics. Dr Brain is one of Australia’s best-known and most highly regarded economic advisers and forecasters. In 1996, alone among his peers, he warned of an imminent Asian financial collapse. Now he explains why the Asian meltdown occurred and what it signifies for the world economy.

Dr Brain argues that the causes of the current crisis can be traced to the failed attempts of many countries in our region to overcome the technological and market dominance of the United States. The north Asian economies adopted a ‘corporatist state’ model following the examples of fascist regimes in the 1930s; south Asian countries tried a ‘crony capitalist’ model.

While the models worked for a number of decades, their inherent flaws led to over-borrowing, corruption, excess capacity, and unsustainably high growth. Now their collapse is exposing structural weaknesses in many other economies from Russia to Latin America, and in turn is threatening Europe and the USA.

Dr Brain believes that the world is heading for a period of low growth not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Soon the battle for growth will be joined worldwide, as country after country tries to establish what the author enumerates as the necessary conditions for growth in the face of countervailing and constantly threatening constraints to growth.

This is a major work of economic analysis and exposition, full of original and penetrating insights. It includes sombre forecasts for the Australian and global economies, and a compelling argument for different economic policies to be pursued in Australia. It is not to be missed by any reader with a serious interest in economic issues and current affairs.